What are predictions?
A simple explanation of the prediction market:
The prediction market is simply game about predicting future events. It is free to all to play. Here is the simplest explanation of how to win this game:
- Using your initial 1,000 prediction "money", buy contracts (usually PRO or CON) of a future event that you think will occur. Each contract will cost you 1 prediction credit/dollar.
- If you predicted correctly, then you win the loser's bets when the deadline occurs. Repeat.
So as you can see, it's a very simple game. If you run out of prediction money, then you can no longer play. So it's best to buy small positions until you get the hang of the game. That's all you need to know. If you want the nitty gritty details...
The complicated explanation of the prediction market:
You predict future events by buying contracts that you think will occur. People who buy the wrong contracts lose their credits to the winning contract buyers. The credits and contracts are only a way to keep score and do not involve real money in any way. This system is a self-service one where any member can start or end predictions.
Everybody starts the game with 1,000 prediction credits. You can spend as many credits as you have left.
You are also charged 1 credit cost for starting a contest. If at least 5 people buy contracts, you get refunded the cost plus an additional amount for creating a successful prediction. The goal is to have people create interesting contests that others will participate in.
If someone cheats by buying a contract after the event has transpired, their contracts will be voided (and not refunded). This will deter cheating. You can also view the contract purchase log so you can help spot cheaters.
When a prediction's outcome has come to pass or if the deadline has passed, then anybody can close the prediction. You'll be asked to provide corroborating evidence such as an URL from a news story. You also pick the time that the event happened. It's important you pick the correct time since any contracts bought after the ending time will be voided. Everybody who bought contracts will be emailed a notice about the pending close.
Within 24 hours of a pending close, the suggested winning position can be contested. The person contesting must provide a link to supporting evidence. The moderators will be notified of this conflict and will intervene and pick the correct close. People caught cheating or abusing the system will have their prediction market privilege removed.
That's it. Have fun and let us know how we can improve the game.
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